Valruzia

[Aethan]

Valruzia votes: Follow with us the 5730 elections!

January 5730

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Welcome, welcome, everyone, to this exciting election night brought to you by TVW, Valruzia's state-run network! It's that time of the year, election day, and we're here to guide you through the results and the outcomes of today's decision made by the Valruzian people. My name is Tobiasz Cericki, and I'm here very well accompained by my colleagues Anita Plitcha and Lena Meliska. Are you ready for the results? What should we expect?

A(nita). P(litcha): Well for once, we will see how strong the different branches of Valruzianism perform for the first time since the democratic transition! Until now, Sovereign Valruzia has been the sole representative of Nowik's ideology, but now its strength will be put to test due to the emergence of the conservative Valruzianism represented by Worthy Homeland! It's truly an interesting battle.

L(ena). M(eliska): Another interesting battle to see is whether the conservative field reaches the desire 301 deputies – the absolute majority required in the Sejm. Latest polls have been razor-sharp in margins between the conservative (NW, GO and SWA) and the progressist (SW, KPW, FLK) fields, and we will at last get the real picture. 

T(obiasz). C(ericki): Okay, so I'm interested in your predictions: we will start getting some results in a few minutes, but what do your guts say?

A.P: Contrary to what some polls say, I do think that the right has no chance to gain the government. Give it perhaps a 10-years span and they might get a shot at it, but as it currently stands, any possible growth by Worthy Homeland that could have given the right the government was squashed by the latest Forward Valruzia scandal, where its now former leader was sentenced to jail for a bunch of felonies. 

L.M: I agree. The big question of the night is whether Sovereign Valruzia retains its absolute majority – which I highly doubt – or will they have to rely on one (KPW) or two (KPW AND FLK) coalition partners. I don't see any other outcome, especially since I doubt there will be any collaboration attempt between SW and GO or SW and NW. Those bridges are burnt.



T.C: And we got our first results! 5% is already counted. As always, keep in mind that first the results of less populous counties and Voivodeships come in, so the results can vary greatly from early on until the very end, and that's all part of the game! But we can already perhaps see some tendencies?

L.M: Well as expected we are seeing a drop in the vote share mainly for Sovereign Valruzia, who will suffer the whole night until the final results are in to see how many voters have they lost to Worthy Homeland. Still, a 33% vote share is pretty high this early.  

A.P: Yes, as you mentioned, we are now mainly receiving data from rural areas and less populated Voivodeships, mainly Chynberg and Kampania, so that's partially a reason of the "weird" results we are currently seeing. Chynberg is Forward Valruzia's stronghold – at least until now, we will see if the corruption scandal will make any damage to them there as much as I think it will do to them in Gryfit – and we can also expect the People's Front of Kampania to rapidly decline in vote share once the results from other voivodeships start to come in. 

T.C: On the right of the screen, viewers will be able to see which widely-regarded agreements are possible and whether they are reaching the 301-seats threshold required for an absolute majority in the Sejm or not. But careful, we are already at 15% counted!



A.P: Yes, and as foretold, the FLK is already losing ground due to its only political battlefield being in Kampania. In this side, the interesting battle to see is how much difference will there be between them and the KPW, a party that contest the elections in the whole nation but yet failed to pass the 10% threshold for the first time in their history during the last elections.

L.M: As results from all Voivodeships are starting to come in, we see Sovereign Valruzia gaining ground while Forward Valruzia now is starting to feel the weight of its leadership's felonies. There is also an impressive growth for Worthy Homeland, who right now are rounding the 16% of vote share and the tendency shows a clear way up.

T.C: But now we will get a clearer image of how Valruzians voted, as we have passed the 40% of votes counted: 



L.M: And here we have what I'd say are the biggest news of the night – barring a not-so-unexpected victory of Sovereign Valruzia –: Worthy Homeland has now overtaken Forward Valruzia and are now in a 20%! And I'd say their percentage will keep growing, according to the trends we are seeing.

A.P: Indeed, I agree. What is worth noting is also that previously, so-called "valruzianist ideology", struggled to get past the 50% threshold – and only did so during the past elections, under Gawel Sandów and Aleksandra Kos. Now, we are seeing that, if we put together SW and GO, their vote share skyrockets to almost 60%! 

T.C: Of course, part of Worthy Homeland's success can be attributed to the decline of Forward Valruzia, who despite choosing a new leadership and trying to put some distance with its former leader now in jail is suffering heavy losses, right now at around 8% but increasing by the minute. 

A.P: And that's bad news for the right because despite the impressive growth of Worthy Homeland, almost half of its voters come from Forward Valruzia, therefore cancelling each other out. I'd safely rule out already by now any chance of a right-wing majority in the Sejm.

T.C: We are now at 85% of the vote counted, and let's see how things look...



L.M: We still have to wait for the final counting and the final seat accounting, but we can say that the biggest winner of the night is, without a doubt, Worthy Homeland. Despite failing to win the elections, they have become the second largest force in their very first attempt, obliterating a large part of Forward Valruzia and causing heavy damage within Sovereign Valruzia, that could have gotten their third absolute majority otherwise.

A.P: Indeed, and I'd dare to say that they have also succeeded in, in a way, neutralizing the far-right, who has also suffered in this election. Meanwhile Sovereign Valruzia has managed to contain the damage, mostly thanks to its strongholds in Ruzia and Valusia, whilst Forward Valruzia has failed to secure a big vote in Gryfit thanks to its former Marshall being arrested.

T.C: And before the final results are released, we already have the winners of the regional presidencies and the mayorship of Nowogard: Sovereign Valruzia keeps Valusia and Ruzia while winning the presidency of Gryfit! Kampania remains in the hands of the People's Front of Kampania while Chynberg has, surprisingly, elected the candidate of Worthy Homeland, who has defeated current Marshall from Forward Valruzia. This means that Forward Valruzia has not only lost its position as leaders of the opposition but also they have lost all of their regional power and will now have to rely on their mayors. For the mayorship of Nowogard, following Józef Nowik decision not to contest the elections after 30 years, still his deputy mayor has managed to win the mayorship, so the capital city remains in the hands of Sovereign Valruzia. And now, let's see the final voting!



T.C: This is it, ladies and gentlemen, the seats have been adjusted and tallied, and all votes are practically counted. These are the highlights of the night:

• Sovereign Valruzia remains as the largest force, but loses its absolute majority and more than 10% of vote share.
  
• Worthy Homeland is the biggest grower, becoming second largest political party and gaining the government of Chynberg, considered Forward Valruzia's stronghold. The party also gets 142 seats
  
• Forward Valruzia cannot contain the damage caused by its former leadership as sees lowest vote share in more than two decades. The party falls to third position, loses almost half of its vote share and fails to retain any regional government. 
  
• The Communist Party of Valruzia and the People's Front of Kampania both see residual gains, gaining 7 and 3 seats respectively and the latter also retaining the government of Kampania. 
  
• Valruzian Alliance see its support declining and gets worst result in this century.
  
• There is only one natural possible coalition, and that is between Sovereign Valruzia, the Communist Party of Valruzia and the People's Front of Kampania. All other possible coalitions lack the necessary majority in the Sejm. A coalition between SW and the KPW or SW and the FLK also lacks sufficient seats. 
  
• Other prospective combinations include SW+GO (380 seats) or SW+NW (326 seats) but their realistic chances of happening are slim at best.
  
• Sovereign Valruzia has won in 50 of Valruzia's 74 counties, including most of Gryfit and four in Kampania. 
  
• Worthy Homeland's biggest win is in Uniatów, Valusia's fourth largest city home to 6% of its citizens. 
  

T.C: But please remember that we still have to wait for the Presidential election results! Until then, we won't know who will be tasked with forming the new Valruzian government. Polls had placed current Chancellor–President Aleksandra Kos as the frontrunner by a wide margin, even winning in the first round, but will there be a surprise? We will be getting the first results in a few hours so stay tuned!